Europe’s Race Against Time: Building a Naval Deterrence Without the United States

Dr James Reeves, George Mennell

April 15

On April 12, The UK Defence Journal reported that the Russian Government have earmarked approximately £73 billion for warship construction over the next decade. Putin has said that the navy is crucial to secure interests at sea, stating that a total of “49 ships of various classes have been built” in the past five years, including four Borei-A strategic submarines and four Yasen-M attack submarines since 2020.

As discussed in our recent deep dive into Europe’s defensive capabilities without the US, though diminished, the U.S. Navy’s ability to reinforce European operations remains a critical asset for NATO.

Europe does have a few noteworthy naval assets. The closest equivalent to a US carrier-strike capability is the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. The United Kingdom’s Royal Navy also boasts two aircraft carriers, the Queen Elizabeth-class ships, but can only deploy one full group currently, though some argue that this is not the case if required. Meanwhile, Italy and Spain possess large-deck aviation platforms, but their capabilities are far more limited. Consequently, the absence of US carrier-strike capabilities in European waters would create a substantial gap in NATO's naval power.

Beyond aircraft carriers, the loss of U.S. destroyers and submarines—particularly the modified Ohio-class guided-missile boats (SSGNs), which can launch Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles—would represent another major setback. European counterparts are limited to a small number of cruise missiles launched from UK and French nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and some French surface ships, further highlighting Europe’s reliance on U.S. assets for high-end strike capabilities.

Air-defence has been demonstrated in Ukraine as the most crucial form of military capability in the new drone age. European navies have begun investing heavily in high-end air defence platforms, but this takes time. No European ship can currently match the missile defence capabilities of many US Navy cruisers and destroyers. Furthermore, European platforms lag their American counterparts in terms of magazine depth and overall weapon stockpiles. These deficiencies are critical when it comes to protecting major naval formations and contributing to Europe’s integrated air and missile defence systems. As things stand, European air defence ships would likely struggle to withstand Russian naval strike capabilities.

The UK’s approach to reducing naval construction times underscores the urgency

of the situation. BAE Systems aims to cut the build time for new frigates from 96 months for the first vessel to 60 months for the eighth and reduce the gap between ship deliveries from 18 months to 12 months. Aircraft carriers are even more arduous. The UK's newest aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth II, took 10 years to complete (2009-2019). Losing any aircraft carrier like the HMS Queen Elizabeth II due to a lack of air defence capabilities in the fleet would be a disaster for European security.

Russia, meanwhile, maintains a robust naval force, with 283 fleet units, including 58 submarines—figures that exceed the combined total of the UK and French navies. While the quality of Russian naval units varies, as does the exact data on how many remain fighting ready, the sheer number of assets represents a significant challenge for European security.

Upon considering these shortfalls, the Russian numbers look concerning. However, a different picture emerges when looking at Non-US NATO spending plans. Though this spending extends to 2042—seven years beyond Russia's current planning horizon—the numbers are no less impressive. According to European Security and Defence (ESD), Non-US NATO members currently have 66 naval projects underway, with a further 72 in the pipeline. Altogether, these efforts aim to deliver 798 vessels by 2042, representing a total investment of $287.56 billion (approximately £220 billion). This figure is nearly three times the size of Russia’s recent naval pledge, painting a far more robust picture, and around double the spend even if Russia were to continue their ambitious targets through to 2042, of Western naval development than headlines might initially suggest.

Several noteworthy programs illustrate the quality of programs completed or close to completion:

• United Kingdom: BAE Systems is building eight Type 26 frigates, designed for anti-submarine warfare and intended to replace the aging Type 23 class. HMS Glasgow, the first in the series, was launched in 2022. Additionally, the Royal Navy launched HMS Agamemnon in 2024, the sixth Astute-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, built for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and submarine hunting.

• France: The French Navy completed its FREMM program with the delivery of Lorraine, the eighth and final multi-mission frigate, in 2022. France is also developing five new Defense and Intervention Frigates (FDI), with Amiral Ronarc'h launched in 2022 and expected to be delivered in 2024.

• Germany: After years of modest naval expansion, Germany is stepping up. Construction of the first F126 frigate, Niedersachsen (F227), began in December 2023, with commissioning scheduled for 2028. Initially set at four ships, the order was expanded to six in April 2024, marking the largest surface combatants built for the German Navy since WWII. Germany is also collaborating with Saab in Bremen to enhance the vessels' software systems. Furthermore, in partnership with Norway, Germany began building six Type 212CD submarines in September 2023. Deliveries are set to start in 2032, with one submarine arriving each year through 2037. These will boast cutting-edge stealth and combat capabilities.

Promising Developments but a Long Road Ahead

Europe must revive their inadequate naval capabilities without guaranteed US naval backing. Therefore, it is not an apples-to-apples comparison to Russia, as much of the £220 billion is replacing existing US capabilities. For the next decade, Europe will no longer be able to bring to bear US assets for naval superiority to overwhelm Russia. Overwhelming force may not be required, however. Europe’s objective is to ensure that the outcomes of Russia’s wargame scenarios consistently involve Russia losing the naval engagement, or a victory so Pyrrhic as to be unviable for supporting land operations. Unfortunately, all the deterrence in world cannot guarantee an ageing Putin would not roll the dice anyway.

Europe is on the right footing to achieve deterrence without the US, so long as either Russia does not ramp up further, or Europe does not renege on current promises. However, the seismic geopolitical course correction occurring in Europe, requiring the construction of the most resource intensive/time consuming military hardware is a glacially slow process. It will take time before Europe can benefit from increased spending with combat-ready vessels. For the next three years Europe will be at its most vulnerable since the Cold War.